US Treasury Term Premium: Pricing for Disaster

The term premium is the difference between bond yields for a given maturity and the expected path of short term interest rates over the same period. By examining the term premium of the US treasury market, we find that this is now of a similar magnitude as for the OPEC oil shocks in the 1970s. The market appears to be fully pricing an event of similar magnitude to the combined effect of a US-China Trade War and a domestic demand shock in China. Investors relying on the term premium for portfolio protection may wish to consider the implied cost of doing so.