Research – Realm Investment House

The Fed and ECB Monetary Reviews

tapc2_nvose7 — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 05:45:40 +0000

Both the Fed and ECB are in the process of reviewing their approach to monetary policy. Over time, central banks have materially changed their approach to address shortcomings which have inevitably emerged. Reviews of this magnitude are expected to result in change. As the caustic effects of persistently low interest rates are showing through ever more clearly, we expect that the primacy of inflation targeting on a medium-term basis will be de-emphasised in the pursuit of superior longer-term economic quality. Whilst the extent of change which will emerge is uncertain, the probable direction of influence is depicted in the following chart. Our full report is available here.

Fed and ECB Monetary Review

Franking Credit Refunds and it’s Implications for SMSFs and Industry Funds

tapc2_nvose7 — Sun, 08 Sep 2019 05:14:52 +0000

Realm Investment House has reviewed the Labor policy proposal to deny franking credit refunds and concludes that Industry Funds stand to gain at least $20bn from SMSFs, within a year, if Labor’s policy to deny franking refunds is implemented.

Please find attached our media release for this topic.

For the full report please contact Realm on 03 9008 7290 or clientservices@realminvestments.com.au

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Realm take on TLAC Announcement

tapc2_nvose7 — Sun, 08 Sep 2019 05:14:12 +0000

For non-fixed interest investors this story hasn’t had a great deal of attention, however for those of us focussed on domestic credit, the TLAC development is the biggest news in some time.

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US Treasury Term Premium: Pricing for Disaster

tapc2_nvose7 — Sun, 08 Sep 2019 05:13:02 +0000

The term premium is the difference between bond yields for a given maturity and the expected path of short term interest rates over the same period. By examining the term premium of the US treasury market, we find that this is now of a similar magnitude as for the OPEC oil shocks in the 1970s. The market appears to be fully pricing an event of similar magnitude to the combined effect of a US-China Trade War and a domestic demand shock in China. Investors relying on the term premium for portfolio protection may wish to consider the implied cost of doing so.

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Outlook for TLAC – Implications for Australian Tier 2

tapc2_nvose7 — Thu, 28 Mar 2019 05:15:07 +0000

We have reviewed recent commentary out of APRA and added some of our own thoughts around the current debate.
This informs our outlook and positioning around the Australian Tier 2 market.

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Australia’s GDP Release: New forecasts and reactions were based off almost nothing

tapc2_nvose7 — Wed, 13 Mar 2019 05:16:15 +0000

Ken Liow talks about forecasting and reactions to data, in light of recent GDP figures

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Is RMBS a Safe Bet in 2019?

tapc2_nvose7 — Tue, 08 Jan 2019 05:17:06 +0000

Realm discusses the RMBS market outlook for 2019 in the wake of a dynamic 2018

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Realm US Corporate Credit Assessment

tapc2_nvose7 — Sat, 15 Dec 2018 22:21:27 +0000

Risk markets have experienced heightened volatility over the last three months, as a myriad of geopolitical risks and softer global economic data have driven market assets into bear market territory.

Credit markets have not been exempt with main indices experiencing extremely weak returns since the start of October.

The market is focussed on a couple of key variables, being the high level of net debt to EBITDA of the IG index and the fact that economic slowdowns generally coincide with a rise in defaults and downgrades.

The attached report provides our detailed assessment of the current US (and broader) credit environment, looking into key risks and mitigants and looking at how we are positioning the fund into this volatility.

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AOFM to support public ABS/Non-Conforming RMBS issuance

tapc2_nvose7 — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 23:23:55 +0000

AOFM to support public ABS/Non-Conforming RMBS issuance

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Realm AT2 Review October 2018

tapc2_nvose7 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 23:37:47 +0000

Realm AT2 Review October 2018

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